2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
Southern Miss
20.0
Louisiana Tech
32.5
Louisiana Tech win probability: 78%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Southern Miss): 12.4 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:30 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:44 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:08 AM | 6.0 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:05 PM | 6.1 | 51.1 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:17 PM | 5.8 | 51.4 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:10 PM | 7.5 | 51.0 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:58 PM | 6.7 | 47.1 | 67% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:00 PM | 6.7 | 47.1 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:18 PM | 6.9 | 47.1 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:29 PM | 6.9 | 47.1 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:31 PM | 8.7 | 47.3 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:02 PM | 9.9 | 50.8 | 74% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:45 PM | 9.5 | 54.6 | 72% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:09 PM | 12.4 | 52.5 | 78% |