2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
22.5
Louisiana Tech
28.5
Louisiana Tech win probability: 65%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Southern Miss): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:30 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:44 PM | 6.1 | 51.0 | 65% |