2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Delaware Stadium
Florida International @ Delaware
Predicted scoreLean
Florida International
24.8
Delaware
20.5
Delaware win probability: 38%
Margin (Delaware − Florida International): -4.4 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 45.3 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:41 PM | -0.4 | 52.0 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:40 PM | -0.4 | 52.0 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:05 PM | -0.4 | 52.0 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:58 AM | -0.5 | 52.0 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:09 PM | -0.5 | 52.0 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:01 PM | -0.5 | 52.7 | 48% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:16 PM | -1.2 | 50.3 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:53 PM | 2.9 | 45.6 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:51 PM | 2.9 | 45.6 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:50 PM | 3.2 | 45.6 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:43 PM | 3.2 | 45.6 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:49 PM | 0.5 | 45.7 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:07 PM | -1.6 | 45.7 | 46% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:49 PM | -3.8 | 45.5 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:22 PM | -4.4 | 45.3 | 38% |