2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Wake Forest @ SMU
Predicted scoreToss-up
Wake Forest
29.6
SMU
29.3
SMU win probability: 49%
Margin (SMU − Wake Forest): -0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 58.9 (80% range 34 to 85)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.53% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:35 PM | 11.9 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:33 PM | 11.9 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:55 PM | 11.9 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:47 AM | 11.9 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:27 PM | 11.9 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:12 PM | 11.2 | 52.1 | 76% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:56 PM | 11.9 | 55.3 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:16 PM | 11.5 | 58.1 | 76% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:48 PM | 11.4 | 58.5 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:57 PM | 11.5 | 58.5 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:38 PM | 11.5 | 58.5 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:20 PM | 3.7 | 59.1 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:57 PM | 0.4 | 58.7 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:43 PM | -0.2 | 58.7 | 49% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:19 PM | -0.3 | 58.9 | 49% |