2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Jerry Richardson Stadium
East Carolina @ Charlotte
Predicted scoreLikely
East Carolina
31.0
Charlotte
16.8
Charlotte win probability: 18%
Margin (Charlotte − East Carolina): -14.2 (80% range -35 to 6)
Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 10 | 0.82% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:27 PM | -14.3 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:48 PM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |