2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Jerry Richardson Stadium
East Carolina @ Charlotte
Predicted scoreLikely
East Carolina
28.1
Charlotte
17.2
Charlotte win probability: 24%
Margin (Charlotte − East Carolina): -10.9 (80% range -31 to 8)
Total: 45.3 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 10 | 0.92% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:27 PM | -14.3 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:48 PM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:42 AM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:16 PM | -14.2 | 47.8 | 18% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:45 PM | -14.1 | 49.4 | 18% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:44 PM | -12.8 | 48.7 | 21% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:10 PM | -9.6 | 49.2 | 27% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:38 PM | -9.6 | 49.2 | 27% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:11 PM | -9.1 | 49.1 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:25 PM | -9.2 | 49.1 | 28% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:29 PM | -14.3 | 43.6 | 17% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:53 PM | -16.9 | 43.9 | 13% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:41 PM | -17.2 | 45.0 | 13% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:18 PM | -10.9 | 45.3 | 24% |