Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
20.1
Iowa
34.7
Iowa win probability: 82%
Margin (Iowa − Purdue): 14.6 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 17.5 | 48.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:38 PM | 16.3 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:53 PM | 16.3 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:50 AM | 16.3 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:03 PM | 16.4 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:23 PM | 16.4 | 48.5 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:01 PM | 18.6 | 45.5 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:05 PM | 18.7 | 49.5 | 89% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:59 PM | 18.6 | 49.5 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:19 PM | 18.7 | 49.6 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:26 PM | 18.7 | 49.6 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:28 PM | 18.2 | 53.0 | 88% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:53 PM | 14.7 | 52.7 | 82% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:32 PM | 13.5 | 55.7 | 80% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:06 PM | 14.6 | 54.8 | 82% |