2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Center Parc Stadium
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia Southern
28.8
Georgia State
28.2
Georgia State win probability: 49%
Margin (Georgia State − Georgia Southern): -0.6 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:28 PM | -1.9 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | -1.9 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:02 PM | -1.9 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:52 AM | -1.9 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:19 PM | -1.9 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:16 PM | -1.0 | 58.7 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:10 PM | -1.0 | 58.2 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:58 PM | -0.4 | 54.7 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:43 PM | -0.3 | 54.7 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:17 PM | -0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:30 PM | -0.0 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:34 PM | 0.6 | 57.4 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:50 PM | 3.4 | 55.9 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:35 PM | 1.9 | 56.7 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:07 PM | -0.6 | 57.0 | 49% |