2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM · Acrisure Stadium
Florida State @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida State
26.5
Pittsburgh
29.0
Pittsburgh win probability: 56%
Margin (Pittsburgh − Florida State): 2.5 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:31 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:19 AM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:15 PM | 2.9 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:09 PM | 2.8 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:42 PM | 8.2 | 54.2 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:03 PM | 7.4 | 52.8 | 68% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:06 PM | 7.4 | 52.9 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:05 PM | 8.1 | 53.0 | 69% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:20 PM | 8.1 | 53.0 | 69% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:25 PM | 6.9 | 55.1 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:48 PM | 2.6 | 54.5 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:59 PM | 4.4 | 54.0 | 61% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:05 PM | 2.5 | 55.4 | 56% |