2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM · Acrisure Stadium
Florida State @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida State
24.0
Pittsburgh
26.8
Pittsburgh win probability: 57%
Margin (Pittsburgh − Florida State): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:31 PM | 2.8 | 50.8 | 57% |