Predicted scoreLikely
Wyoming
19.2
UNLV
31.2
UNLV win probability: 78%
Margin (UNLV − Wyoming): 11.9 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:23 PM | 12.0 | 52.5 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:26 PM | 12.0 | 52.5 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:25 PM | 12.0 | 52.4 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:57 AM | 12.0 | 52.4 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:03 PM | 12.0 | 52.4 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:42 PM | 11.5 | 52.0 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:55 PM | 13.6 | 49.9 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:43 PM | 10.5 | 48.1 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:31 PM | 10.6 | 48.0 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:36 PM | 10.6 | 48.2 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:47 PM | 10.6 | 48.2 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:48 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:43 PM | 15.1 | 48.5 | 84% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:08 PM | 13.5 | 46.5 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:00 PM | 11.9 | 50.4 | 78% |