2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 12:30 AM · Notre Dame Stadium
Miami @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreLean
Miami
23.0
Notre Dame
29.1
Notre Dame win probability: 65%
Margin (Notre Dame − Miami): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:19 PM | 5.9 | 54.1 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:25 PM | 6.1 | 54.1 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:22 PM | 6.1 | 54.1 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:37 AM | 6.1 | 54.1 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:02 PM | 6.1 | 54.1 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:39 PM | 6.4 | 54.2 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:52 PM | 5.6 | 54.7 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:24 PM | 6.6 | 53.7 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:30 PM | 6.6 | 53.7 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:37 PM | 6.7 | 53.7 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:46 PM | 6.7 | 53.7 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:49 PM | 7.9 | 50.0 | 69% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:41 PM | 5.8 | 50.9 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:06 PM | 7.5 | 51.5 | 69% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:59 PM | 6.1 | 52.1 | 65% |