2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 11:00 PM · Canvas Stadium
Boise State @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreLikely
Boise State
37.4
Colorado State
23.7
Colorado State win probability: 20%
Margin (Colorado State − Boise State): -13.8 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 61.1 (80% range 37 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.59% |
| 35 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:12 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:24 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:20 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:35 AM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:01 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:38 PM | -10.4 | 53.0 | 26% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:35 PM | -8.1 | 53.9 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:23 PM | -7.6 | 56.2 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:29 PM | -7.6 | 56.3 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:19 PM | -7.4 | 56.2 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:44 PM | -7.4 | 56.2 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:19 PM | -9.6 | 57.3 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:21 PM | -13.0 | 60.4 | 21% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:57 PM | -12.0 | 60.9 | 23% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:40 PM | -13.8 | 61.1 | 20% |