2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 11:00 PM · Canvas Stadium
Boise State @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreLikely
Boise State
31.3
Colorado State
21.9
Colorado State win probability: 28%
Margin (Colorado State − Boise State): -9.5 (80% range -30 to 11)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:12 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:24 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:20 PM | -9.5 | 53.2 | 28% |