2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
North Carolina @ UConn
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Carolina
28.2
UConn
30.0
UConn win probability: 54%
Margin (UConn − North Carolina): 1.7 (80% range -19 to 22)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:23 PM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:23 PM | 1.7 | 58.3 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:16 PM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |