2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
North Carolina @ UConn
Predicted scoreLean
North Carolina
30.1
UConn
24.9
UConn win probability: 37%
Margin (UConn − North Carolina): -5.2 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:23 PM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:23 PM | 1.7 | 58.3 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:16 PM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:30 AM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:58 PM | 1.7 | 58.2 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:33 PM | 1.5 | 57.8 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:56 PM | 0.2 | 54.9 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:51 PM | -3.3 | 54.6 | 42% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:25 PM | -3.3 | 54.6 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:48 PM | -3.2 | 54.5 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:50 PM | -3.2 | 54.5 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:15 PM | -2.4 | 55.0 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:40 PM | -4.5 | 56.6 | 39% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:00 PM | -4.6 | 55.7 | 39% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:39 PM | -5.2 | 54.9 | 37% |