Predicted scoreLean
Hawai'i
26.5
UTEP
22.0
UTEP win probability: 39%
Margin (UTEP − Hawai'i): -4.6 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | -4.5 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:14 PM | -4.6 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:08 PM | -4.6 | 48.5 | 39% |