Predicted scoreLean
Hawai'i
27.4
UTEP
21.2
UTEP win probability: 35%
Margin (UTEP − Hawai'i): -6.2 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | -4.5 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:14 PM | -4.6 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:08 PM | -4.6 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:04 AM | -4.5 | 48.5 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:55 PM | -4.6 | 48.4 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:08 PM | -4.3 | 48.2 | 39% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:29 PM | -5.4 | 45.5 | 37% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:34 PM | -3.9 | 45.9 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:10 PM | -4.0 | 45.9 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:30 PM | -4.2 | 45.8 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:51 PM | -4.2 | 45.8 | 39% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:05 PM | -4.3 | 46.7 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:33 PM | -5.3 | 46.8 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:24 PM | -5.7 | 48.6 | 35% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:49 PM | -6.2 | 48.6 | 35% |