2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Liberty @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreLean
Liberty
29.4
New Mexico State
24.0
New Mexico State win probability: 37%
Margin (New Mexico State − Liberty): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | 0.1 | 54.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:24 PM | 0.0 | 54.1 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:20 PM | 0.1 | 54.1 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:34 AM | 0.1 | 54.1 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:00 PM | 0.1 | 54.1 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:37 PM | 1.1 | 54.5 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:35 PM | 1.5 | 56.3 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:22 PM | 1.8 | 57.4 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:28 PM | 1.8 | 57.4 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:19 PM | 2.2 | 57.3 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:48 PM | 2.2 | 57.3 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:19 PM | -4.3 | 56.3 | 40% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:20 PM | -1.7 | 54.3 | 46% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:57 PM | -5.3 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:40 PM | -5.4 | 53.4 | 37% |