2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Liberty @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Liberty
27.0
New Mexico State
27.1
New Mexico State win probability: 50%
Margin (New Mexico State − Liberty): 0.1 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | 0.1 | 54.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:24 PM | 0.0 | 54.1 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:20 PM | 0.1 | 54.1 | 50% |