2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · McLane Stadium
Iowa State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
30.2
Baylor
27.5
Baylor win probability: 44%
Margin (Baylor − Iowa State): -2.7 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:11 PM | -2.6 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:14 PM | -2.6 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:56 PM | -2.7 | 57.7 | 44% |