2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · McLane Stadium
Iowa State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
25.3
Baylor
27.9
Baylor win probability: 57%
Margin (Baylor − Iowa State): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:11 PM | -2.6 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:14 PM | -2.6 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:56 PM | -2.7 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:09 AM | -2.6 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:49 PM | -2.7 | 57.7 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:07 PM | -2.3 | 57.2 | 44% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:25 PM | 0.8 | 56.7 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:44 PM | 0.6 | 56.9 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:13 PM | 0.6 | 56.9 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:45 PM | 0.9 | 56.9 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:53 PM | 0.9 | 56.9 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:12 PM | -3.2 | 54.9 | 42% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:37 PM | 1.5 | 56.6 | 54% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:16 PM | 2.8 | 55.4 | 57% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:51 PM | 2.6 | 53.1 | 57% |