Predicted scoreLean
UCF
23.4
Kansas
28.4
Kansas win probability: 62%
Margin (Kansas − UCF): 4.9 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:15 PM | 6.7 | 58.5 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:21 PM | 6.7 | 58.5 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:01 PM | 6.7 | 58.5 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:18 AM | 6.7 | 58.5 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:51 PM | 6.7 | 58.5 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:18 PM | 6.7 | 58.6 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:06 PM | 6.6 | 58.6 | 65% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:42 PM | 2.3 | 54.9 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:14 PM | 2.3 | 55.0 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:46 PM | 2.5 | 54.9 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:52 PM | 2.5 | 54.9 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:13 PM | 1.9 | 52.0 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:38 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:02 PM | 6.5 | 52.2 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:52 PM | 4.9 | 51.8 | 62% |