Predicted scoreLean
Tulsa
22.1
Tulane
29.6
Tulane win probability: 68%
Margin (Tulane − Tulsa): 7.5 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:23 PM | 18.9 | 53.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:20 PM | 18.9 | 53.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:54 PM | 18.9 | 53.6 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:24 AM | 18.9 | 53.6 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:45 PM | 18.9 | 53.6 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:26 PM | 17.8 | 53.8 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:19 PM | 16.0 | 49.2 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:49 PM | 12.7 | 51.1 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:12 PM | 12.7 | 51.1 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:46 PM | 12.7 | 51.2 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:11 PM | 12.7 | 51.2 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:58 PM | 9.6 | 52.6 | 73% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:29 PM | 6.4 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:21 PM | 7.1 | 51.4 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:57 PM | 7.5 | 51.8 | 68% |