2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Ohio Stadium
Oregon @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreLikely
Oregon
17.8
Ohio State
29.7
Ohio State win probability: 78%
Margin (Ohio State − Oregon): 11.9 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 47.5 (80% range 27 to 70)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:19 PM | 7.9 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:18 PM | 7.9 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:12 PM | 7.9 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:29 AM | 7.9 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:45 PM | 7.8 | 52.6 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:09 PM | 7.9 | 52.3 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:30 PM | 9.3 | 54.2 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:39 PM | 14.0 | 54.3 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:07 PM | 14.1 | 54.3 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:31 PM | 14.1 | 54.3 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:09 PM | 14.1 | 54.3 | 82% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:04 PM | 9.6 | 53.5 | 73% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:32 PM | 9.7 | 53.6 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:22 PM | 9.4 | 50.8 | 73% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:55 PM | 11.9 | 47.5 | 78% |