2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Florida State @ Boston College
Predicted scoreLean
Florida State
32.1
Boston College
24.2
Boston College win probability: 31%
Margin (Boston College − Florida State): -8.0 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:11 PM | -6.4 | 56.1 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:14 PM | -6.4 | 56.1 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:07 PM | -6.4 | 56.1 | 35% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:23 AM | -6.4 | 56.1 | 35% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:48 PM | -6.4 | 56.0 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:32 PM | -7.1 | 55.8 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:09 PM | -7.5 | 55.2 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:37 PM | -8.9 | 55.1 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:11 PM | -8.9 | 55.1 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:30 PM | -8.6 | 55.1 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:01 PM | -8.5 | 55.1 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:02 PM | -7.4 | 53.5 | 32% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:31 PM | -11.4 | 54.8 | 24% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:08 PM | -9.0 | 55.0 | 29% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:48 PM | -8.0 | 56.3 | 31% |