2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · TDECU Stadium
Cincinnati @ Houston
Predicted scoreLean
Cincinnati
26.5
Houston
35.1
Houston win probability: 70%
Margin (Houston − Cincinnati): 8.6 (80% range -13 to 30)
Total: 61.6 (80% range 37 to 88)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:14 PM | 4.5 | 55.9 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:21 PM | 4.5 | 55.9 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:06 PM | 4.5 | 55.9 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:19 AM | 4.5 | 55.8 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:55 PM | 4.6 | 55.9 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:08 PM | 4.3 | 55.8 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:17 PM | -0.0 | 56.8 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:37 PM | 1.4 | 57.6 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:14 PM | 1.4 | 57.6 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:43 PM | 2.4 | 57.7 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:13 PM | 2.4 | 57.7 | 56% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:04 PM | 3.1 | 61.0 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:31 PM | 5.4 | 59.2 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:01 PM | 8.9 | 58.6 | 71% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:52 PM | 8.6 | 61.6 | 70% |