Predicted scoreLikely
Rutgers
19.5
Wisconsin
33.6
Wisconsin win probability: 81%
Margin (Wisconsin − Rutgers): 14.1 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:25 PM | 5.5 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:19 PM | 5.5 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:14 PM | 5.5 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:22 AM | 5.5 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:46 PM | 5.5 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:27 PM | 6.7 | 52.8 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:19 PM | 13.2 | 54.5 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:48 PM | 12.4 | 54.1 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:18 PM | 12.4 | 54.1 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:38 PM | 12.7 | 54.2 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:11 PM | 12.7 | 54.2 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:58 PM | 15.0 | 52.5 | 83% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:28 PM | 17.8 | 53.0 | 87% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:27 PM | 17.6 | 52.5 | 87% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:47 PM | 14.1 | 53.1 | 81% |