Predicted scoreToss-up
Alabama
22.1
LSU
24.5
LSU win probability: 56%
Margin (LSU − Alabama): 2.4 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 46.6 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:16 PM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:56 PM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:15 AM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:52 PM | -3.5 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:14 PM | -3.9 | 48.4 | 40% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:11 PM | -0.1 | 47.3 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:40 PM | -1.3 | 45.7 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:16 PM | -1.3 | 45.7 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:48 PM | -0.9 | 45.8 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:57 PM | -0.9 | 45.8 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:08 PM | -1.4 | 49.5 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:35 PM | -3.5 | 47.1 | 41% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:25 PM | -3.6 | 48.2 | 41% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:50 PM | 2.4 | 46.6 | 56% |