Predicted scoreLean
UCLA
25.8
Minnesota
18.3
Minnesota win probability: 31%
Margin (Minnesota − UCLA): -7.4 (80% range -27 to 11)
Total: 44.1 (80% range 24 to 66)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 7 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:17 PM | 4.0 | 49.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:18 PM | 4.0 | 49.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:53 PM | 4.0 | 49.5 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:06 AM | 4.0 | 49.4 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:48 PM | 3.9 | 49.4 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:29 PM | 3.5 | 49.7 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:16 PM | 0.2 | 50.1 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:51 PM | -4.3 | 50.3 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:22 PM | -4.3 | 50.3 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:43 PM | -4.1 | 50.3 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:14 PM | -4.1 | 50.3 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:07 PM | -4.7 | 48.7 | 38% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:34 PM | -3.8 | 47.6 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:20 PM | -6.6 | 44.7 | 33% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:59 PM | -7.4 | 44.1 | 31% |