Predicted scoreLikely
Charlotte
17.5
UAB
28.9
UAB win probability: 77%
Margin (UAB − Charlotte): 11.4 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 46.4 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:23 PM | 3.8 | 50.1 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:21 PM | 3.9 | 50.1 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:15 PM | 3.9 | 50.1 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:18 AM | 3.8 | 50.1 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:48 PM | 3.8 | 50.1 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:23 PM | 3.7 | 50.2 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:27 PM | 6.4 | 50.2 | 65% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:38 PM | 5.3 | 50.4 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:07 PM | 5.4 | 50.4 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:31 PM | 5.7 | 50.4 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:00 PM | 5.7 | 50.4 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:06 PM | 9.8 | 44.4 | 74% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:33 PM | 12.6 | 44.4 | 80% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:14 PM | 12.2 | 45.2 | 79% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:55 PM | 11.4 | 46.4 | 77% |