2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Ryan Field
Iowa @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
24.7
Northwestern
27.2
Northwestern win probability: 56%
Margin (Northwestern − Iowa): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:19 PM | -6.3 | 45.5 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:18 PM | -6.3 | 45.5 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:08 PM | -6.4 | 44.5 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:20 AM | -6.4 | 44.5 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:47 PM | -6.2 | 44.4 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:31 PM | -5.7 | 44.5 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:27 PM | -8.1 | 42.9 | 29% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:36 PM | -7.2 | 42.2 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:08 PM | -7.3 | 42.2 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:35 PM | -6.9 | 42.2 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:01 PM | -6.9 | 42.2 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:02 PM | 2.3 | 46.0 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:30 PM | 5.2 | 47.2 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:21 PM | 3.3 | 52.3 | 58% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:55 PM | 2.6 | 51.9 | 56% |