Predicted scoreLean
TCU
22.7
Arizona
27.8
Arizona win probability: 63%
Margin (Arizona − TCU): 5.1 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.92% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:10 PM | 3.0 | 53.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | 3.0 | 53.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:49 PM | 3.0 | 53.4 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:03 AM | 3.0 | 53.4 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:44 PM | 3.0 | 53.4 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:06 PM | 2.7 | 53.8 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:04 PM | 4.7 | 52.0 | 61% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:32 PM | 3.3 | 52.5 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:06 PM | 3.3 | 52.5 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:25 PM | 3.4 | 52.5 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:08 PM | 3.4 | 52.5 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:56 PM | 4.6 | 53.3 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:27 PM | 7.0 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:09 PM | 7.2 | 52.4 | 68% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:46 PM | 5.1 | 50.5 | 63% |