2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 12:30 AM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
South Florida @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
28.8
East Carolina
26.2
East Carolina win probability: 44%
Margin (East Carolina − South Florida): -2.6 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:12 PM | -2.6 | 55.0 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | -2.6 | 54.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:47 PM | -2.6 | 55.0 | 44% |