2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 12:30 AM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
South Florida @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
26.5
East Carolina
22.9
East Carolina win probability: 41%
Margin (East Carolina − South Florida): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:12 PM | -2.6 | 55.0 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | -2.6 | 54.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:47 PM | -2.6 | 55.0 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:01 AM | -2.6 | 55.0 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:43 PM | -2.7 | 55.0 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:03 PM | -3.9 | 54.8 | 40% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:02 PM | -4.3 | 52.6 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:28 PM | -7.7 | 54.9 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:04 PM | -7.7 | 55.0 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:24 PM | -7.5 | 55.0 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:06 PM | -7.6 | 55.0 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:54 PM | -3.0 | 52.6 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:25 PM | -1.5 | 50.6 | 46% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:11 PM | -2.2 | 51.4 | 44% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:45 PM | -3.6 | 49.4 | 41% |