2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Virginia Tech @ SMU
Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia Tech
24.6
SMU
34.0
SMU win probability: 71%
Margin (SMU − Virginia Tech): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:21 PM | 15.2 | 56.7 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:12 PM | 15.2 | 56.7 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:46 PM | 15.2 | 56.7 | 82% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:01 AM | 15.2 | 56.7 | 82% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:43 PM | 15.3 | 56.7 | 82% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:03 PM | 16.1 | 57.2 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:01 PM | 15.9 | 55.8 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:29 PM | 11.3 | 56.5 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:04 PM | 11.3 | 56.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:23 PM | 11.1 | 56.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:06 PM | 11.1 | 56.6 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:54 PM | 8.6 | 59.5 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:25 PM | 8.7 | 59.2 | 70% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:11 PM | 10.0 | 60.2 | 73% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:44 PM | 9.4 | 58.5 | 71% |