2026 Week 10 · Nov 6, 2026, 1:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
James Madison @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreLikely
James Madison
35.2
Southern Miss
19.8
Southern Miss win probability: 17%
Margin (Southern Miss − James Madison): -15.3 (80% range -36 to 5)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:21 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:12 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:46 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:00 AM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:42 PM | -16.2 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:02 PM | -16.6 | 51.3 | 14% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:00 PM | -13.8 | 50.2 | 19% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:30 PM | -13.9 | 50.7 | 19% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:03 PM | -13.8 | 50.7 | 19% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:22 PM | -13.7 | 50.6 | 19% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:05 PM | -13.7 | 50.6 | 19% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:52 PM | -18.5 | 52.5 | 12% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:25 PM | -16.9 | 53.6 | 14% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:12 PM | -16.1 | 56.1 | 16% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:44 PM | -15.3 | 55.0 | 17% |