2026 Week 10 · Nov 6, 2026, 1:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
James Madison @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreLikely
James Madison
33.7
Southern Miss
17.6
Southern Miss win probability: 15%
Margin (Southern Miss − James Madison): -16.1 (80% range -36 to 4)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:21 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:12 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:46 PM | -16.1 | 51.3 | 15% |