2026 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Ball State @ Massachusetts
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
28.4
Massachusetts
23.6
Massachusetts win probability: 38%
Margin (Massachusetts − Ball State): -4.8 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | -4.9 | 51.9 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:11 PM | -4.9 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:43 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 38% |