2026 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Ball State @ Massachusetts
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
24.2
Massachusetts
29.0
Massachusetts win probability: 62%
Margin (Massachusetts − Ball State): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | -4.9 | 51.9 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:11 PM | -4.9 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:43 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:39 AM | -4.9 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:40 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:00 PM | -4.8 | 51.4 | 38% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:58 PM | 3.3 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:31 PM | 3.9 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:01 PM | 4.0 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:21 PM | 4.5 | 52.6 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:04 PM | 4.6 | 52.6 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:51 PM | 12.0 | 51.9 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:24 PM | 6.5 | 52.5 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:13 PM | 5.8 | 53.7 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:42 PM | 4.8 | 53.3 | 62% |