2026 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM · Hornet Stadium
Toledo @ Sacramento State
Predicted scoreConfident
Toledo
38.3
Sacramento State
12.2
Sacramento State win probability: 5%
Margin (Sacramento State − Toledo): -26.1 (80% range -46 to -7)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 7 | 0.99% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.95% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.95% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.91% |
| 35 | 7 | 0.85% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:44 PM | 0.4 | 51.7 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:58 AM | 0.4 | 51.7 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:42 PM | 0.3 | 51.6 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:00 PM | 0.1 | 52.0 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:59 PM | -14.2 | 41.7 | 17% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:26 PM | -22.8 | 48.5 | 7% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:02 PM | -22.7 | 48.4 | 7% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:21 PM | -22.8 | 48.2 | 7% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:03 PM | -22.8 | 48.2 | 7% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:51 PM | -28.5 | 50.3 | 3% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:23 PM | -27.2 | 51.4 | 4% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:59 PM | -23.3 | 50.2 | 6% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:43 PM | -26.1 | 50.5 | 5% |