2026 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM · Hornet Stadium

Toledo @ Sacramento State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Toledo

25.7

Sacramento State

26.0

Sacramento State win probability: 51%

Margin (Sacramento State − Toledo): 0.4 (80% range -22 to 23)

Total: 51.7 (80% range 31 to 73)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.