2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM · Fargodome
UTEP @ North Dakota State
Predicted scoreConfident
UTEP
7.8
North Dakota State
29.8
North Dakota State win probability: 94%
Margin (North Dakota State − UTEP): 22.0 (80% range 4 to 41)
Total: 37.6 (80% range 20 to 58)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 1.62% |
| 0 | 28 | 1.55% |
| 0 | 21 | 1.50% |
| 7 | 31 | 1.40% |
| 7 | 24 | 1.36% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:38 PM | 13.8 | 50.3 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:39 AM | 13.8 | 50.3 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:21 PM | 13.8 | 50.2 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:20 PM | 15.0 | 50.8 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:40 PM | 27.1 | 34.7 | 98% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:53 PM | 20.7 | 39.7 | 93% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:33 PM | 20.8 | 39.8 | 93% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 20.8 | 39.9 | 93% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:29 PM | 20.8 | 39.9 | 93% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:29 PM | 17.7 | 40.6 | 89% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:59 PM | 21.4 | 39.1 | 94% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:38 PM | 22.2 | 38.0 | 95% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:37 PM | 22.0 | 37.6 | 94% |