2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Florida International @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLean
Florida International
19.7
Liberty
27.2
Liberty win probability: 69%
Margin (Liberty − Florida International): 7.5 (80% range -11 to 27)
Total: 47.0 (80% range 26 to 70)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:00 PM | 2.1 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:10 PM | 2.1 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:37 PM | 2.1 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:40 AM | 2.1 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:21 PM | 2.1 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:20 PM | 0.4 | 52.1 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:42 PM | 1.6 | 52.3 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:52 PM | 0.5 | 52.4 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:32 PM | 0.5 | 52.4 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:59 AM | 0.9 | 52.3 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:28 PM | 0.9 | 52.3 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:29 PM | 6.7 | 49.3 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:12 PM | 8.4 | 48.3 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:39 PM | 7.5 | 46.8 | 69% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:36 PM | 7.5 | 47.0 | 69% |