Predicted scoreLean
UConn
26.7
Air Force
33.4
Air Force win probability: 66%
Margin (Air Force − UConn): 6.7 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 60.1 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:55 PM | -0.4 | 60.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:09 PM | -0.4 | 60.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:36 PM | -0.3 | 60.9 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:42 AM | -0.3 | 60.8 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:22 PM | -0.4 | 60.8 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:22 PM | -0.3 | 61.9 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:38 PM | 0.8 | 62.1 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:52 PM | 5.2 | 61.6 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:34 PM | 5.2 | 61.8 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:59 AM | 5.4 | 61.6 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:27 PM | 5.4 | 61.6 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:28 PM | 4.5 | 61.4 | 60% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:12 PM | 7.1 | 60.3 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:37 PM | 6.1 | 60.4 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:35 PM | 6.7 | 60.1 | 66% |