Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
30.6
Air Force
30.3
Air Force win probability: 49%
Margin (Air Force − UConn): -0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 60.9 (80% range 37 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:55 PM | -0.4 | 60.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:09 PM | -0.4 | 60.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:36 PM | -0.3 | 60.9 | 49% |