2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM · Gillette Stadium (neutral site)
Notre Dame @ Navy
Predicted scoreConfident
Notre Dame
34.3
Navy
14.6
Navy win probability: 10%
Margin (Navy − Notre Dame): -19.7 (80% range -39 to 0)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 7 | 0.95% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.88% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.84% |
| 28 | 10 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:01 PM | -17.9 | 50.9 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:09 PM | -17.9 | 50.9 | 12% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:34 PM | -17.9 | 50.9 | 12% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:43 AM | -17.8 | 50.9 | 12% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:23 PM | -18.1 | 50.9 | 12% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:23 PM | -19.5 | 50.4 | 10% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:38 PM | -19.7 | 52.5 | 11% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:51 PM | -23.2 | 50.7 | 6% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:34 PM | -22.2 | 50.6 | 7% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:58 AM | -24.2 | 50.6 | 6% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:27 PM | -24.2 | 50.6 | 6% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:27 PM | -22.8 | 48.0 | 7% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:13 PM | -22.9 | 46.2 | 6% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:37 PM | -22.9 | 47.9 | 6% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:35 PM | -19.7 | 48.9 | 10% |