2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Miami @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami
31.2
North Carolina
20.0
North Carolina win probability: 24%
Margin (North Carolina − Miami): -11.2 (80% range -31 to 9)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:02 PM | -17.3 | 53.2 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:05 PM | -17.3 | 53.2 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:30 PM | -17.3 | 53.2 | 14% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:51 AM | -17.3 | 53.2 | 14% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:24 PM | -17.3 | 53.2 | 14% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:16 PM | -16.9 | 52.8 | 14% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:16 PM | -16.7 | 50.6 | 14% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:12 PM | -16.0 | 51.6 | 15% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:49 PM | -16.0 | 51.7 | 15% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:12 PM | -15.8 | 51.6 | 16% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:39 PM | -15.7 | 51.6 | 16% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:41 PM | -15.6 | 51.2 | 16% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:08 PM | -15.3 | 52.7 | 17% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:51 PM | -13.9 | 51.5 | 19% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:26 PM | -11.2 | 51.3 | 24% |