2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
UAB @ South Florida
Predicted scoreLikely
UAB
19.7
South Florida
30.8
South Florida win probability: 76%
Margin (South Florida − UAB): 11.1 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:05 PM | 21.7 | 55.5 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:02 PM | 21.7 | 55.5 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:28 PM | 21.7 | 55.5 | 91% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:29 AM | 21.7 | 55.5 | 91% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:27 PM | 21.9 | 55.6 | 91% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:32 PM | 21.6 | 55.7 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:11 PM | 19.8 | 55.3 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:15 PM | 19.6 | 56.2 | 89% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:44 PM | 19.6 | 56.3 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:16 PM | 20.1 | 56.3 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:43 PM | 20.1 | 56.3 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:46 PM | 16.5 | 51.9 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:11 PM | 15.0 | 50.6 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:55 PM | 14.3 | 52.3 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:22 PM | 11.1 | 50.5 | 76% |