2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium
California @ NC State
Predicted scoreLean
California
22.6
NC State
30.9
NC State win probability: 70%
Margin (NC State − California): 8.3 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:02 PM | 8.1 | 53.7 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:02 PM | 8.0 | 53.6 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:25 PM | 8.0 | 53.6 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:49 AM | 8.0 | 53.6 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:24 PM | 8.0 | 53.5 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:51 PM | 7.7 | 53.3 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:27 PM | 6.1 | 53.9 | 65% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:06 PM | 6.7 | 52.2 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:38 PM | 6.7 | 52.2 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:55 AM | 6.9 | 52.2 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:24 PM | 6.9 | 52.2 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:22 PM | 7.0 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:16 PM | 8.9 | 51.2 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:34 PM | 5.7 | 53.4 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:33 PM | 8.3 | 53.6 | 70% |