2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Virginia @ Wake Forest
Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia
21.0
Wake Forest
32.8
Wake Forest win probability: 77%
Margin (Wake Forest − Virginia): 11.8 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:08 PM | -0.4 | 49.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:01 PM | -0.4 | 49.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:08 PM | -0.4 | 50.0 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:44 AM | -0.4 | 50.0 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:35 PM | -0.3 | 50.0 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:28 PM | 0.3 | 49.8 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:16 PM | -3.4 | 52.6 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:51 PM | -3.7 | 54.5 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:53 PM | -3.7 | 54.5 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:08 PM | -3.0 | 54.5 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:36 PM | -3.0 | 54.5 | 43% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:37 PM | 2.3 | 53.7 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:05 PM | 7.9 | 54.1 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:47 PM | 10.6 | 54.4 | 75% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:18 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |