Predicted scoreLean
Kansas
22.0
TCU
26.8
TCU win probability: 62%
Margin (TCU − Kansas): 4.8 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:06 PM | 5.4 | 60.0 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:07 PM | 5.4 | 60.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:18 PM | 5.4 | 60.1 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:27 AM | 5.4 | 60.0 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:33 PM | 5.4 | 60.1 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:52 PM | 5.3 | 60.3 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:28 PM | 3.0 | 57.7 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:06 PM | 6.8 | 56.2 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:29 PM | 6.8 | 56.3 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:07 PM | 7.0 | 56.3 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:36 PM | 7.0 | 56.3 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:36 PM | 6.1 | 51.5 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:05 PM | 2.4 | 49.1 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:46 PM | 1.2 | 50.7 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:18 PM | 4.8 | 48.9 | 62% |