2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Oklahoma State
24.8
Iowa State
31.1
Iowa State win probability: 65%
Margin (Iowa State − Oklahoma State): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 33 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:59 PM | 17.7 | 54.4 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:06 PM | 17.7 | 54.4 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:16 PM | 17.7 | 54.3 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:20 AM | 17.8 | 54.3 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:26 PM | 17.7 | 54.3 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:55 PM | 18.1 | 54.4 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:18 PM | 19.2 | 53.9 | 88% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:01 PM | 14.7 | 54.0 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:59 PM | 14.8 | 54.0 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:07 PM | 14.9 | 54.0 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:35 PM | 14.9 | 54.0 | 82% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:36 PM | 11.9 | 54.7 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:04 PM | 9.0 | 55.6 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:46 PM | 7.3 | 55.0 | 68% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:19 PM | 6.3 | 55.8 | 65% |