Predicted scoreLean
SMU
31.7
Syracuse
24.7
Syracuse win probability: 34%
Margin (Syracuse − SMU): -6.9 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.51% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:06 PM | -11.8 | 55.0 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:01 PM | -11.8 | 55.0 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:24 PM | -11.8 | 55.0 | 23% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:50 AM | -11.8 | 55.0 | 23% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:25 PM | -12.0 | 54.9 | 23% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:43 PM | -13.2 | 55.0 | 21% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:35 PM | -13.0 | 54.8 | 21% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:17 PM | -12.2 | 54.1 | 23% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:48 PM | -12.2 | 54.1 | 23% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:13 PM | -11.9 | 54.0 | 23% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:40 PM | -11.9 | 53.9 | 23% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:42 PM | -7.2 | 56.5 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:08 PM | -7.3 | 57.1 | 33% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:52 PM | -6.0 | 56.6 | 36% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:25 PM | -6.9 | 56.4 | 34% |