2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Autzen Stadium
Northwestern @ Oregon
Predicted scoreLean
Northwestern
22.4
Oregon
28.1
Oregon win probability: 64%
Margin (Oregon − Northwestern): 5.7 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:04 PM | 18.9 | 52.4 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:04 PM | 18.9 | 52.4 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:11 PM | 18.8 | 52.3 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:17 AM | 18.8 | 52.3 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:39 PM | 18.8 | 52.3 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:30 PM | 18.4 | 52.2 | 88% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:15 PM | 16.9 | 52.6 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:16 PM | 11.5 | 51.8 | 77% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:36 PM | 11.6 | 51.8 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:57 AM | 11.7 | 51.8 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:25 PM | 11.7 | 51.8 | 77% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:25 PM | 6.7 | 53.5 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:16 PM | 4.9 | 53.9 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:36 PM | 6.3 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:34 PM | 5.7 | 50.5 | 64% |