2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Ohio State @ USC
Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio State
33.4
USC
24.7
USC win probability: 30%
Margin (USC − Ohio State): -8.7 (80% range -29 to 12)
Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:08 PM | -4.6 | 56.1 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:03 PM | -4.7 | 56.0 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:29 PM | -4.6 | 56.0 | 38% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:33 AM | -4.6 | 56.0 | 38% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:39 PM | -4.7 | 55.9 | 38% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:31 PM | -5.1 | 55.8 | 38% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:30 PM | -4.2 | 58.5 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:16 PM | -5.1 | 58.6 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:43 PM | -5.1 | 58.6 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:04 PM | -5.2 | 58.5 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:32 PM | -5.2 | 58.5 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:33 PM | -8.3 | 58.4 | 30% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:02 PM | -8.8 | 59.0 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:43 PM | -8.3 | 58.7 | 31% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:21 PM | -8.7 | 58.0 | 30% |