2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Malone Stadium
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreToss-up
Southern Miss
27.1
UL Monroe
23.5
UL Monroe win probability: 41%
Margin (UL Monroe − Southern Miss): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:07 PM | -3.6 | 50.5 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:00 PM | -3.6 | 50.5 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:26 PM | -3.6 | 50.6 | 41% |