2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Malone Stadium
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
29.7
UL Monroe
23.0
UL Monroe win probability: 34%
Margin (UL Monroe − Southern Miss): -6.7 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:07 PM | -3.6 | 50.5 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:00 PM | -3.6 | 50.5 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:26 PM | -3.6 | 50.6 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:45 AM | -3.6 | 50.6 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:33 PM | -3.7 | 50.6 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:34 PM | -3.4 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:32 PM | -5.3 | 52.8 | 37% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:03 PM | -5.3 | 52.1 | 36% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:44 PM | -5.3 | 52.1 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:03 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:31 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:32 PM | -4.5 | 51.9 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:01 PM | -5.6 | 53.5 | 37% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:42 PM | -5.1 | 56.4 | 38% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:22 PM | -6.7 | 52.7 | 34% |