Predicted scoreLean
Army
25.2
Memphis
31.3
Memphis win probability: 65%
Margin (Memphis − Army): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:01 PM | 3.5 | 51.2 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:07 PM | 3.5 | 51.2 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:24 PM | 3.5 | 51.2 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:30 AM | 3.5 | 51.2 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:40 PM | 3.5 | 51.1 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:34 PM | 4.7 | 50.5 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:23 PM | 5.1 | 52.8 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:08 PM | 3.6 | 57.3 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:42 PM | 3.8 | 57.3 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:05 PM | 4.1 | 57.2 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:33 PM | 4.1 | 57.2 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:34 PM | 4.8 | 56.1 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:03 PM | 8.8 | 58.7 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:44 PM | 10.5 | 57.8 | 75% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:20 PM | 6.1 | 56.5 | 65% |