Predicted scoreToss-up
Baylor
26.7
UCF
24.6
UCF win probability: 45%
Margin (UCF − Baylor): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:07 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:59 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:06 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:26 AM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:31 PM | 1.7 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:42 PM | 1.1 | 56.6 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:48 PM | -0.6 | 55.8 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:59 PM | -1.8 | 53.0 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:57 PM | -1.9 | 52.9 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:52 AM | -1.7 | 53.0 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:21 PM | -0.3 | 53.0 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:21 PM | 0.7 | 51.5 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:15 PM | -1.7 | 52.8 | 46% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:30 PM | -2.7 | 53.6 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:31 PM | -2.1 | 51.4 | 45% |