2026 Week 9 · Oct 27, 2026, 11:00 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Delaware @ Western Kentucky
Predicted scoreLean
Delaware
20.6
Western Kentucky
28.5
Western Kentucky win probability: 69%
Margin (Western Kentucky − Delaware): 7.9 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 49.1 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:08 PM | 8.8 | 52.9 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:58 PM | 8.8 | 52.9 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:01 PM | 8.8 | 52.9 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:21 AM | 8.8 | 52.9 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:28 PM | 8.9 | 52.9 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:37 PM | 8.7 | 52.8 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:14 PM | 5.1 | 53.8 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:56 PM | -0.3 | 49.6 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:40 PM | -0.2 | 49.6 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:48 AM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:18 PM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:17 PM | 5.8 | 50.1 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:18 PM | 5.4 | 49.8 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:27 PM | 6.4 | 50.4 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:28 PM | 7.9 | 49.1 | 69% |