2026 Week 8 · Oct 25, 2026, 1:30 AM · Canvas Stadium
San Diego State @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreToss-up
San Diego State
24.2
Colorado State
28.2
Colorado State win probability: 60%
Margin (Colorado State − San Diego State): 4.0 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:44 PM | -3.5 | 49.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:57 PM | -3.5 | 49.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:58 PM | -3.4 | 49.3 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:12 AM | -3.4 | 49.4 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:06 PM | -3.4 | 49.3 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:52 PM | -3.3 | 49.2 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:08 PM | -0.2 | 50.9 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:28 PM | 1.5 | 50.0 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:27 PM | 1.5 | 50.1 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:31 AM | 2.1 | 50.0 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:04 PM | 2.1 | 50.0 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:07 PM | 5.7 | 51.9 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:57 PM | 2.3 | 53.1 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:25 PM | 6.3 | 53.2 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:08 PM | 4.0 | 52.4 | 60% |