Predicted scoreLean
BYU
28.1
UCF
22.7
UCF win probability: 36%
Margin (UCF − BYU): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:53 PM | -5.5 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:54 PM | -5.5 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:42 PM | -5.4 | 50.8 | 36% |