Predicted scoreLean
BYU
27.6
UCF
21.4
UCF win probability: 35%
Margin (UCF − BYU): -6.2 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:53 PM | -5.5 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:54 PM | -5.5 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:42 PM | -5.4 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:35 AM | -5.5 | 50.7 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:18 PM | -5.5 | 50.7 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:39 PM | -5.4 | 50.9 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:03 PM | -4.9 | 51.2 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:41 PM | -4.8 | 50.0 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:16 PM | -4.7 | 50.0 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:34 AM | -3.7 | 50.0 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:08 PM | -3.7 | 50.0 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:52 PM | -3.0 | 48.0 | 42% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:51 PM | -3.2 | 46.8 | 42% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:16 PM | -5.2 | 47.7 | 37% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:00 PM | -6.2 | 49.0 | 35% |