2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Arizona Stadium
Iowa State @ Arizona
Predicted scoreLean
Iowa State
22.7
Arizona
30.5
Arizona win probability: 69%
Margin (Arizona − Iowa State): 7.8 (80% range -12 to 28)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:42 PM | 5.9 | 52.2 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:48 PM | 5.8 | 52.2 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:40 PM | 5.8 | 52.2 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:54 AM | 5.8 | 52.2 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:00 PM | 6.0 | 52.1 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:41 PM | 5.9 | 51.8 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:01 PM | 6.0 | 52.2 | 65% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:39 PM | 3.6 | 54.0 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:17 PM | 5.0 | 54.1 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:42 AM | 4.2 | 54.0 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:00 PM | 4.2 | 54.0 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:49 PM | 1.2 | 56.0 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:50 PM | 5.1 | 56.7 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:21 PM | 6.7 | 55.2 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:14 PM | 7.8 | 53.2 | 69% |